IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 886: Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 886: Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph15050886

Authors: Xiao Fu Chong-Shi Gu Huai-Zhi Su Xiang-Nan Qin

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level.

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