Using survival analysis to improve pre-emptive fire engine allocation for emergency response

Publication date: April 2018
Source:Fire Safety Journal, Volume 97
Author(s): Godfred Yeboah, Peter Y. Park
Municipal fire districts with only one fire engine face challenges when responding to multiple concurrent emergency calls. The problem appears to arise more often than might be expected. The pre-emptive allocation of fire engines for predetermined short-term periods from one carefully selected fire district to another could help fire districts to respond to multiple incidents more efficiently and effectively by maximizing the use of a municipality's existing resources. This study used survival analysis (the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox hazard model) to determine the time (time of day, day of the week and season) when the risk of multiple emergencies was expected to be highest in a “demand” fire district and lowest in a “supplier” district. The type of incident most likely to occur was also considered. Our case study in Saskatoon found that the demand district most needed help with multiple calls during summer weekends from 10 a.m. to 11 p.m. One of the two supplier districts analyzed had low risk at these times and could participate in pre-emptive allocation. Alarm incidents were the most likely type of incident to occur during multiple calls. The study clearly demonstrates the potential for pre-emptive fire engine allocation based on a data-driven and scientific approach.



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