IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 2048: Establishing Heat Alert Thresholds for the Varied Climatic Regions of British Columbia, Canada

IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 2048: Establishing Heat Alert Thresholds for the Varied Climatic Regions of British Columbia, Canada

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph15092048

Authors: Kathleen E. McLean Rebecca Stranberg Melissa MacDonald Gregory R. A. Richardson Tom Kosatsky Sarah B. Henderson

Following an extreme heat event in 2009, a Heat Alert and Response System (HARS) was implemented for the greater Vancouver area of British Columbia (BC), Canada. This system has provided a framework for guiding public health interventions and assessing population response and adaptation to extreme heat in greater Vancouver, but no other parts of BC were covered by HARS. The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based heat alert thresholds for the Southwest, Southeast, Northwest, and Northeast regions to facilitate the introduction of HARS across BC. This was done based on a national approach that considers high temperatures on two consecutive days and the intervening overnight low, referred to as the high-low-high approach. Daily forecast and observed air temperatures and daily mortality counts for May through September of 2004 through 2016 were obtained. For each date (dayt), dayt−2 forecasts were used to assign high temperatures for dayt and dayt+1 and the overnight low. A range of high-low-high threshold combinations was assessed for each region by finding associations with daily mortality using time-series models and other considerations. The following thresholds were established: 29-16-29 °C in the Southwest; 35-18-35 °C in the Southeast; 28-13-28 °C in the Northwest; and 29-14-29 °C in the Northeast. Heat alert thresholds for all regions in BC provide health authorities with information on dangerously hot temperature conditions and inform the activation of protective public health interventions.

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